By AFP - Agence France Presse
Trump's climate retreat shines a light on green leaders
Nick Perry
The withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement is a blow to global cooperation on climate change, but other countries are stepping forward and stepping up their leadership on the issue.
China is dominating the race for clean energy, Brazil will lead the global climate negotiations, Denmark has approved the world's first tax on animal emissions and Colombia is saying goodbye to fossil fuels.
There are fears that the US withdrawal, announced by President Donald Trump on Monday, will undermine global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
But some observers also see a chance for the most ambitious countries to forge new alliances, set the agenda, and defend a climate agreement endorsed by almost all nations.
“It's a pact that's bigger than just the United States,” said Frances Colon, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a Washington-based policy institute.
- Emerging players
One of these emerging leaders is Brazil, which this year is hosting one of the most important UN climate summits since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has positioned himself as the global standard-bearer for the environment and, since taking office, deforestation in the Amazon has fallen impressively.
But he also wants to expand oil exploration in Brazil, complicating the country's image as host of COP30.
Together with South Africa, which is hosting the G20 this year, Brazil is expected to shape a global reform agenda that demands that climate and development goals go hand in hand.
“This could be a year for leadership from the Global South,” said Tim Sahay, co-director of the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University.
In December, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi boasted of his country's “leadership” in the deployment of solar and wind energy.
“India is setting global standards for climate action,” he said on the X.
- Renewable energy
China's economic contribution to reducing global emissions - the main objective of the Paris Agreement - is already unparalleled.
The country produces more than half of the world's electric vehicles, around 70% of its wind turbines, and 80% of its solar panels, helping to drastically reduce the cost of low-carbon technologies.
On Tuesday, China announced that it had installed a record amount of renewable energy by 2024 and promised to “work with all parties to actively address the challenges of climate change”.
As political headwinds frustrate global climate action, “China's performance in advancing and deploying green technologies could become the salvation,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Center at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
China already wields considerable diplomatic clout in global climate negotiations, informally leading an important bloc of developing countries.
At the same time, China is responsible for the overwhelming majority of the growth in planet-warming gas emissions since the Paris Agreement was signed.
It will soon overtake the European Union as the second largest historical polluter, behind the United States, and may feel less pressure under Trump to take more ambitious measures.
- Old guard
The EU has a long history of climate leadership and reduced its emissions by 7.5% between 2022 and 2023, far ahead of any other nation or bloc.
The 27-nation bloc is also the largest contributor of climate finance to the poorest countries, surpassing all other rich nations.
“The Paris Agreement remains the best hope for all of humanity. Therefore, Europe will stay the course and continue to work with all nations that want to protect nature and stop global warming,” EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday.
During Trump's last presidency, the EU and China launched a climate dialogue with Canada to ensure unwavering high-level support for the Paris Agreement while the United States was out of the process.
Strong leadership will again be needed to drive the process forward, said Alex Scott, senior associate at the Italian climate think tank ECCO.
“The EU and China could collaboratively provide that geopolitical hub,” she told AFP.
But the EU is preoccupied with its internal problems, including political shifts to anti-climate parties, while Beijing is embroiled in a trade dispute with Brussels over its tax on carbon-intensive imports.
- Green Agenda
A host of other countries, from economic giants to tiny Caribbean islands, are eager to spread their climate bona fides.
The UK - where Energy Secretary Ed Miliband pledged in November to “make Britain a climate leader again” - produced its cleanest electricity on record in 2024.
Denmark has passed a tax on agricultural emissions, Barbados and Kenya are pushing for global financial reforms to boost investment in developing countries, and Colombia has promised to stop extracting fossil fuels - its biggest source of exports.
Scott said that “countries that have bet on investing in the economy of the future with green technology and green jobs will continue to make that bet because it is in their interest”.
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