"EXTENDED SUMMARY" OF THE CLIMATE IN 2024
Marcos Leandro Kazmierczak [mleandrok@hotmail.com]
PhD in Natural Disasters, Founder of KAZ Tech - The Climate Change Startup
On January 16, 2025, I attended the monthly meeting of CEMADEN (National Center for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerts), as I have done for more than three years now. As usual, the first meeting of the year has the bonus of featuring a summary of the previous year. The presentation was given by Dr. Antonio José Marengo, my doctoral advisor, and I'm going to use his slides as a basis for my comments.
1. Analysis of climate impacts in South America
2024 was marked by extreme weather events, with significant impacts on several countries in the region. In Brazil, heavy rains in Rio Grande do Sul in April and May caused one of the biggest weather disasters in history, resulting in a high number of fatalities and considerable economic damage. In contrast, the Amazon and the Pantanal faced a severe drought, with record low river flows. In addition to intense rainfall and drought, the region also suffered from heat waves and forest fires, which aggravated existing problems and put the health of the population and ecosystems at risk.
The combination of extreme climatic factors, such as El Niño and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, has contributed to the intensification of these events, highlighting South America's vulnerability to "climate change", which I am now calling the "Climate Emergency", as has UN Secretary-General António Guterres since 2023. Analysis of the extreme weather events that have occurred demonstrates the urgency of adopting measures to mitigate the effects of the climate emergency and increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems. It is essential to invest in public policies that promote adaptation to the new climate realities, such as integrated water resource management, strengthening early warning systems, and developing resilient infrastructures so that we don't have the mortality recorded in Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Rio Grande do Sul. In addition, reducing GHG emissions is essential to limit "Global Boiling" (another Guterrez term) and avoid even more intense extreme weather events in the future. Increasingly frequent and destructive, in terms of impact.
The bill for this climate emergency is higher for the Southern Hemisphere, and South America faces a complex and urgent challenge. The adoption of effective measures is crucial to guarantee environmental sustainability and the well-being of the region's populations.
2. The global temperature map
The 2024 global temperature map (below), drawn up by NOAA, reveals an alarming pattern of warming over practically the entire planet. The predominance of warm tones indicates that most land and ocean regions have experienced temperatures significantly above the historical average. This global thermal anomaly is a strong indication of the intensification of the climate emergency and its increasingly severe impacts. The consequences of this widespread global boiling are diverse and worrying since rising temperatures contribute to melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and the intensification of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, and storms, as well as affecting biodiversity and global food security.
The data presented on the map reinforces the urgency of global action to mitigate the effects of climate change. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, switching to renewable energy sources and adopting sustainable practices are crucial measures to limit this global boiling and avoid even more serious consequences. In addition to mitigation measures, it is essential to invest in adaptation policies to minimize the impacts of the climate emergency in which we find ourselves. The construction of resilient infrastructures, the efficient management of water resources, the development of early warning systems, and the promotion of sustainable agricultural practices are examples of actions that can help protect the most vulnerable populations and ecosystems.
3. The temperature anomaly map
Similarly to the previous map, the map of surface temperature anomalies in 2024 (below), provided by Copernicus, reveals a global pattern of significantly above-average temperatures. The predominance of warm tones indicates that most of the Earth's surface has recorded higher temperatures than those observed in the reference period (1991-2020).
The most extreme anomalies, represented by the most intense colors, are concentrated in certain areas, suggesting a greater occurrence of extreme weather events such as heat waves. This spatial distribution of anomalies can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the natural variability of the climate, global boiling of anthropogenic origin, and the influence of climatic phenomena such as El Niño. Analysis of this map is crucial for understanding the impacts of climate change in different regions of the world and for making decisions related to adaptation and mitigation.
The high temperatures recorded in 2024, the hottest year on record, have significant implications for various sectors, such as agriculture, health, the economy, and ecosystems. Extreme events such as droughts, floods, and forest fires, intensified by rising temperatures, could cause substantial economic losses, population displacement, and environmental damage. An example of this is the savannization of the Amazon, once the point of no return cited by Dr. Carlos Nobre more than 30 years ago is passed.
4. TSM (Sea Surface Temperature) anomalies and extremes
The map of anomalies and extremes in TSM in 2024, provided by Copernicus, reveals a worrying scenario with global implications. The planet recorded temperatures significantly above the historical average, established between 1991 and 2020, and this maritime thermal anomaly is a strong indication of the intensification of global boiling and its impacts on climate systems. The consequences of this ocean warming are diverse and complex. The increase in TSM contributes to rising sea levels, and the intensification of extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones and marine heat waves, as well as affecting marine biodiversity, fishing, and the economy of coastal communities.
Reducing GHG emissions, transitioning to a low-carbon economy, and adopting sustainable fishing practices are crucial measures for limiting global warming and preserving marine ecosystems. In addition to mitigation measures, it is crucial to invest in ocean research and monitoring to better understand ongoing processes and develop adaptation strategies.
Global turmoil and its impact on Brazil
The news that the world has exceeded 1.6°C of global warming compared to the pre-industrial era is an alarming sign of the ongoing climate emergency. This rise in average global temperature, confirmed by various scientific studies, has direct and significant consequences for the planet and, in particular, for Brazil. Rising global temperatures intensify extreme weather events such as heat waves, prolonged droughts, torrential rains, and rising sea levels. Here, these climate changes are already evident, with regions registering temperature increases above the global average: we are 2.2°C above the temperature of the pre-industrial era. The occurrence of more intense and frequent forest fires, prolonged droughts that affect agriculture and hydroelectric power production, as well as the increased risk of flooding in urban areas, are examples of the direct impacts of these changes in the country.
The impacts go far beyond extreme weather events. Rising temperatures affect the health of the population, increasing the number of cases of heat-related illnesses, such as dehydration and respiratory diseases. In addition, agriculture, a key sector of the Brazilian economy, is highly vulnerable to the climate emergency, with impacts on food production and food security. Faced with this scenario, Brazil must intensify its actions to mitigate the causes and adapt to their impacts. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, transitioning to a cleaner energy matrix, and investing in clean technologies are essential measures to combat global warming. In addition, it is essential to strengthen the resilience of communities and ecosystems, through measures such as the recovery of degraded areas, the sustainable management of natural resources, and the development of early warning systems for extreme weather events.
6. The world is heating up and Brazil is suffering the consequences
The following graph, produced by Copernicus, indicates a worrying milestone for the global climate: 2024 is the first year in which the global average temperature has exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This figure is extremely relevant since 1.5°C is the limit set by the Paris "Agreement" to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. What the graph shows:
Warming trend: the red line representing 2024 is significantly higher than the lines for other years, showing a substantial increase in the average global temperature.
Accelerating warming: the slope of the lines over time shows a clear trend of global warming, with the last few decades showing the greatest temperature increases.
Exceeding the 1.5°C limit: the fact that 2024 has passed the 1.5°C mark above pre-industrial levels indicates that the effects of climate change are intensifying faster than expected.
What does this mean? Exceeding the 1.5°C limit is a clear sign that the climate emergency is an urgent reality and that actions to mitigate it need to be stepped up. The impacts of global boiling are already visible in many parts of the world and, if GHG emissions are not drastically reduced, the consequences will be even more serious in the coming decades.
What are the implications? An increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods. Rising sea levels, with consequences for coastal cities and islands. Extinction of species and loss of natural habitats. Impacts on agriculture and food production, leading to shortages and rising prices. Risk of people migrating in search of more favorable climatic conditions.
7. Temperature trends (1900-2024)
The following graph clearly and forcefully demonstrates the warming throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries. The various colored lines represent different sets of temperature data, analyzed by different institutions, but all of them converged on an upward trend in recent years, which is an indisputable indicator of global boiling. It is important to note that the rise in global average temperature is not a linear phenomenon but is characterized by annual and regional fluctuations, but the long-term trend is undeniably upward. Global temperatures in 2024 are significantly above the average for the reference period (1991-2020), with significant increases.
8.The global boil
The fact that 2024 was the hottest year on record calls for an immediate and coordinated global response. It is essential to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions by investing in renewable energy sources and clean technologies. In addition, cities and infrastructures must be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change, such as investing in efficient drainage systems, creating green areas, and promoting sustainable agriculture. The international community needs to step up efforts to meet the objectives of the Paris "Agreement" and limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C. The transition to a low-carbon economy is a complex but fundamental challenge to ensure a sustainable future for generations to come. Inaction in the face of this problem could have irreversible consequences for the planet and humanity.
9. The impact of the Climate Emergency in Brazil
The data presented by INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) reveals a worrying scenario, with extreme events such as intense heat waves, torrential rains, and prolonged droughts affecting the country significantly. The consequences of this warming are diverse and complex. The high temperatures have contributed to the occurrence of forest fires, with an increase of 46% compared to the previous year, and have affected the health of the population, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses. In addition, extreme rainfall caused devastating floods in Rio Grande do Sul, resulting in significant human and economic losses. The drought, in turn, impacted the Amazon and other biomes, compromising river transportation and causing large-scale fish kills.
The INMET data presented below reveals an alarming climate scenario in Brazil in 2024, marked by extreme events of both intense rainfall and high temperatures:
Exceptional rainfall: the list of the ten cities with the highest monthly rainfall accumulations shows the occurrence of much higher than average rainfall events in various regions of the country. This excessive rainfall can be associated with various factors, including the intensification of extreme weather events and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Caxias do Sul (RS): 845.3mm; Salvador (BA): 821.7mm; Soledade (RS): 773.8mm; Canela (RS): 767.2mm; Bento Gonçalves (RS): 763.0mm; Turiaçu (MA): 750.0mm; Tracuateua (PA): 746.8mm; Guaratuba (PR) 722.2mm; Água Boa (MT): 717.4mm; and Oiapoque (AP): 715.4mm.
Extreme maximum temperatures: on the other hand, the list of the ten cities with the highest maximum temperatures recorded in 2024 shows the occurrence of intense heat waves. These high temperatures can be attributed to various factors, such as the climate emergency, urbanization, and the influence of climatic phenomena such as El Niño. Goiás (GO): 44.5°C; Cuiabá (MT): 44.3°C; Indiaporã (SP): 43.3°C; Aragarças (GO): 43.3°C; Rio de Janeiro (RJ): 43.2°C; Nhumirim (MS): 43.2°C; Coxim (MS): 43.1°C; Santa Salete (SP): 43.1°C; Valparaíso (SP): 43.1°C; and Santo Antônio de Leverger (MT): 43.0°C.
Faced with this scenario, Brazil must invest in adaptation and mitigation actions. The implementation of early warning systems, integrated water resource management, sustainable urban planning, and the promotion of resilient agricultural practices are some of the measures needed to face the challenges posed by climate change. In addition, scientific research and international cooperation must be strengthened to find innovative and effective solutions to this global problem.
10. Climate anomalies in South America in 2024
The following maps reveal a worrying picture of climate conditions in South America during 2024. The first map, which refers to temperature anomalies, shows a pattern of above-average warming over a large part of the continent, especially in the Amazon region and central Brazil. The warm colors indicate areas where temperatures have been significantly above the historical average, highlighting the impact of climate change.
The second map shows the rainfall anomalies and presents a scenario of great spatial variability. While some regions recorded an excess of rainfall, others suffered from a shortage. The Integrated Drought Index map on the right corroborates this information, indicating that large areas of South America, especially Brazil, faced severe to exceptional drought conditions. The combination of high temperatures and scarce rainfall has intensified the risk of forest fires.
The analysis of these maps reinforces the need for urgent action to mitigate the effects of the climate emergency and adapt to the new conditions. It is essential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, invest in renewable energies, promote sustainable agricultural practices, and strengthen the management of water resources. Adaptation is a complex challenge, but one that is fundamental to guaranteeing the security and well-being of future generations.
11. Specific analysis of precipitation in Eastern and Southern Amazonia
The graphs below illustrate the temporal variability of rainfall in the Eastern (a) and Southern (b) Amazon over time, with emphasis on the dry and rainy periods. Analysis of this data reveals important patterns in the climate of these regions and their implications for the Amazon ecosystem.
Eastern Amazon: a clear alternation between periods of rain and drought, with peaks of precipitation during the rainy season and drier periods during the rest of the year. The red lines highlight the most intense drought years, such as 1982, 1997, 2005, 2010, and 2023. It can be seen that the intensity and duration of droughts vary over time, with some years showing longer and more severe dry spells. This natural climate variability is influenced by various factors, such as atmospheric circulation, ocean temperature, and vegetation.
Southern Amazon: shows a similar pattern to the Eastern Amazon, with an alternation between periods of rain and drought. However, the amplitude of the variation in rainfall seems to be greater in this region, with longer and more intense periods of drought. 2023, in particular, stands out for having an exceptionally long period of drought, as indicated by the yellow line. This prolonged drought could have serious consequences for the Amazon rainforest, increasing the risk of forest fires and affecting biodiversity.
The dry season got longer! Which means the rainy season got shorter.
12. Specific analysis of the levels of the Rio Negro in Manaus
The graph below shows the variation in the levels of the Rio Negro in Manaus over time, showing a cyclical pattern of oscillations between periods of flooding and drought. These fluctuations are influenced by various climatic and hydrological factors, such as the rainfall regime in the Amazon region, the temperature of the water, and the dynamics of the rivers in the Amazon basin. The yellow horizontal lines on the graph demarcate the limits considered to be "normal" for river levels. Above these lines, floods occur, which can cause flooding in urban and rural areas, affecting people's lives and infrastructure. Below the lines, droughts occur, which can lead to water shortages for various activities, such as agriculture, fishing, and energy generation. Historical data shows that the frequency and intensity of these extreme events vary over time, with periods of greater occurrence of floods or droughts.
There has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, both floods and droughts. This trend is related to the climate emergency, which is altering rainfall and temperature patterns in the Amazon region. The consequences of these changes are diverse and affect the region's biodiversity, economy, and society.
13. Specific analysis of hydrological and geological risk in Rio Grande do Sul
Issued on April 30, before the peak rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul in the first week of May, the hydrological risk map drawn up by CEMADEN corroborates the data presented, indicating areas of high and very high risk of flooding in various regions of the state. This situation was aggravated by factors such as the irregular occupation of risk areas, soil sealing, and the lack of adequate infrastructure for urban drainage. Similarly, the geological risk map warned of the possibility of landslides in areas with steep slopes and unstable soil, which further highlights the state's vulnerability to extreme events.
It is essential to note that extreme events such as those that occurred in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024 are likely to become more frequent and intense due to the climate emergency. The combination of intense and prolonged rainfall with disorderly urbanization and the occupation of risk areas increases the likelihood of natural disasters. Given this scenario, there is an urgent need to adopt risk prevention and mitigation measures, such as the implementation of early warning systems, adequate urban planning, the recovery of degraded areas, and environmental education for the population. In addition, it is necessary to invest in resilient infrastructure, capable of withstanding the impacts of extreme events. Integrated water resource management and the creation of contingency plans are also essential measures to reduce the state's vulnerability to these events.
14. Final considerations
Splashes of 2024, on the day I write this article, we have the antagonism of several northeastern states (Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas, and Sergipe) facing absurd water shortages, with hundreds of municipalities in a state of public calamity, and several states in the same region (Ceará, Piauí, Maranhão and Bahia) at the opposite extreme, with dozens of municipalities in a state of public calamity facing flooding and torrential downpours as a result of heavy rains. In the same week.
CEMADEN's presentation on 2024 climate events in South America, with a focus on Brazil, paints an alarming and urgent picture. The data presented shows a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, such as heat waves, prolonged droughts, torrential rains, and floods. This intensification of climatic phenomena is directly linked to the global climate emergency and has profound impacts on various sectors, such as agriculture, health, the economy, and the environment. Key points include:
Global temperature rise: 2024 was the hottest on record, exceeding the pre-industrial average by 1.5°C, an alarming milestone that is also the limit set by the Paris "Agreement".
Extreme events: Brazil and South America have recorded a series of extreme weather events, such as the heavy rains in Rio Grande do Sul and the prolonged drought in the Amazon.
Socio-economic impacts: extreme events have caused floods, landslides, agricultural losses, population displacement, and public health impacts.
Vulnerability: South America has shown itself to be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with significant consequences for the population and ecosystems.
Need for action: the data presented reinforces the urgency of adopting measures to mitigate the causes of the climate emergency and adapt to its impacts.
Analysis of CEMADEN's data shows that the climate emergency is a reality and that its impacts are already being felt in Brazil and South America. Governments, companies, and civil society must come together to face this global challenge. The main measures to be adopted include:
Reducing GHG emissions: the transition to a low-carbon economy is essential to limit global boiling.
Adapting to impacts: it is necessary to invest in adaptation measures, such as building resilient infrastructure, developing early warning systems, and integrated water resource management.
Awareness and education: the population must be made aware of the impacts of the climate emergency and the importance of adopting sustainable practices.
International cooperation: cooperation between countries is key to tackling this global challenge.
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