By AFP - Agence France Presse
Children's well-being “under threat” in 2050, warns UNICEF
By Amélie BOTTOLLIER-DEPOIS
Demographic shifts, worsening climate change, and rapid technological transformation risk creating a bleak future for young people by the middle of the 21st century, the United Nations Children's agency warned on Tuesday in an annual report.
“Children are experiencing a myriad of crises, from climate shocks to online dangers, and these are set to intensify in the coming years,” wrote Catherine Russell, UNICEF's executive director, in a statement marking the launch of the agency's annual report.
“Decades of progress, especially for girls, are under threat.”
This year, UNICEF uses its report to make a projection to 2050, identifying three “major trends” that, in addition to unpredictable conflicts, pose threats to children unless policymakers make changes.
The first risk is demographic change, with the number of children expected to remain similar to current figures of 2.3 billion, but they will represent a smaller share of the larger, aging global population of around 10 billion.
Although the proportion of children will decline in all regions, their numbers will explode in some of the poorest areas, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.
This offers the potential to boost economic growth, but only if the new young population has access to quality education, health care, and jobs, notes UNICEF.
In some developed countries, children could represent less than 10% of the population by 2050, which raises concerns about their “visibility” and their rights in societies geared towards an aging population.
The second threat is climate change.
If current greenhouse gas emission trends continue, by 2050, children could face eight times more heat waves than in 2000, three times more extreme floods, and 1.7 times more forest fires, according to UNICEF projects.
New technologies, especially artificial intelligence, have the potential to drive innovations and progress, but they can also widen existing inequalities between rich and poor countries.
It is estimated that 95% of people in developed countries have access to the Internet, compared to just 26% in less developed countries, often due to a lack of electricity, connectivity, or devices.
“Not removing the barriers for children in these countries, especially those living in the poorest families, means leaving an already disadvantaged generation even further behind,” according to UNICEF.
Being connected also brings risks. The uncontrolled proliferation of new technologies poses a threat to children and their data, making them vulnerable to online predators.
“The children of the future face many risks, but what we wanted to demonstrate is that the solutions are in the hands of today's decision-makers,” Cecile Aptel, deputy director of UNICEF's research division, told AFP.
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