World map showing sea surface temperature anomalies in 2024, according to Copernicus data Jonathan Walter, Paz Pizarro
By AFP - Agence France Presse
2024, the hottest year on record, has crossed the global warming threshold
By Nina Larson, with Nick Perry and Julien Mivielle in Paris
Over the past two years, global average temperatures have exceeded a critical warming limit for the first time, Europe's climate monitor said on Friday, as the UN called for “pioneering” climate action.
While this does not mean that the internationally agreed 1.5ºC warming limit has been permanently breached, the United Nations has warned that it is in “grave danger”.
“Today's assessment by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is clear,” said UN chief Antonio Guterres. “Global warming is a cold, hard fact.”
He added: “Scorching temperatures in 2024 demand pioneering climate action in 2025. There is still time to avoid the worst climate catastrophe. But leaders need to act - now.”
The WMO said that six international datasets confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record, extending a decade of “extraordinary record-breaking temperatures”.
The United States became the latest country to report that its heat record had been broken, ending a year marked by devastating tornadoes and hurricanes.
The announcement was made just days before the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to double fossil fuel production.
Excessive heat is putting a strain on extreme weather and, in 2024, countries such as Spain, Kenya, the United States, and Nepal suffered disasters costing more than 300 billion dollars, according to some estimates.
Los Angeles is currently battling deadly wildfires that have destroyed thousands of buildings and forced tens of thousands of people to flee their homes.
Another record year is not expected in 2025, as the UN deadline for nations to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions approaches.
“My prediction is that it will be the third warmest year,” said NASA's chief climate scientist, Gavin Schmidt, citing the US determination that the year began with a weak La Nina, a global weather pattern that should bring a slight cooling.
The WMO's analysis of the six data sets showed that global average surface temperatures were 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels.
“This means that we have probably just experienced the first calendar year with a global average temperature of more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average,” he said.
The European climate monitor Copernicus, which provided one of the data sets, found that both of the last two years exceeded the warming limit set in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Global temperatures have risen “beyond what modern humans have ever experienced”, it said.
The scientists emphasized that the 1.5°C limit set in the Paris Agreement refers to a sustained increase over decades, which offers a glimmer of hope.
Nevertheless, Johan Rockstrom, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, called the milestone a “severe warning signal”.
“We have already experienced the first taste of a 1.5°C world, which has cost people and the global economy unprecedented suffering and economic costs,” he told AFP.
Almost 200 nations agreed in Paris in 2015 that reaching 1.5ºC offered the best chance of avoiding the most catastrophic repercussions of climate change.
But the world remains far from the right track.
Although the Copernicus records date back to 1940, other climate data from ice cores and tree rings suggest that the Earth is now probably warmer than it has been in tens of thousands of years.
Scientists say that every fraction of a degree above 1.5ºC is important and that, beyond a certain point, the climate can change unpredictably.
Man-made climate change is already making droughts, storms, floods, and heat waves more frequent and intense.
The death of 1,300 pilgrims in Saudi Arabia during extreme heat, a flurry of strong tropical storms in Asia and North America, and historic floods in Europe and Africa were grim milestones in 2024.
The oceans, which absorb 90% of excess heat from greenhouse gases, warmed to record levels in 2024, damaging coral reefs and marine life and causing violent weather conditions.
Warmer seas increase evaporation and atmospheric humidity, causing heavier rainfall and energizing cyclones.
Water vapor in the atmosphere reached new records in 2024, combining with high temperatures to cause floods, heat waves, and “misery for millions of people,” said Copernicus deputy climate director Samantha Burgess.
Scientists attribute some of the record heat to the start of the El Niño warming in 2023.
But El Niño ended in early 2024, leaving them puzzled by persistently high global temperatures.
“The future is in our hands - swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate,” said Copernicus climate director Carlo Buontempo.
burs-ia/nro
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